When judging probabilities—or performing any statistical analysis—it is important for each observation to be an independent event that has not been subject to manipulation. The less biased each observation is, the less biased the end probability will be. That’s why many prefer the objective over subjective probabilities because it leaves less room for emotions or biases to seep into the process, as numbers, hard facts, and models replace guesswork, hunches, and intuition.

Nguồn tham khảo: investopedia

Subjective probability varies from person to person—objective probability does not.

An example of subjective probability is when a person who is educated about weather patterns examines things such as barometric pressure, wind shear, and ocean temperature, then predicts the likelihood that a hurricane will head in a certain direction based on their previous experience. While the data aids in the decision-making, the ultimate prediction is based on probabilities that have been guesstimated by the weather forecaster.

When judging probabilities—or performing any statistical analysis—it is important for each observation to be an independent event that has not been subject to manipulation. The less biased each observation is, the less biased the end probability will be. That’s why many prefer the objective over subjective probabilities because it leaves less room for emotions or biases to seep into the process, as numbers, hard facts, and models replace guesswork, hunches, and intuition.

Nguồn tham khảo: investopedia

Subjective probability varies from person to person—objective probability does not.

An example of subjective probability is when a person who is educated about weather patterns examines things such as barometric pressure, wind shear, and ocean temperature, then predicts the likelihood that a hurricane will head in a certain direction based on their previous experience. While the data aids in the decision-making, the ultimate prediction is based on probabilities that have been guesstimated by the weather forecaster.

When judging probabilities—or performing any statistical analysis—it is important for each observation to be an independent event that has not been subject to manipulation. The less biased each observation is, the less biased the end probability will be. That’s why many prefer the objective over subjective probabilities because it leaves less room for emotions or biases to seep into the process, as numbers, hard facts, and models replace guesswork, hunches, and intuition.

Nguồn tham khảo: investopedia

Subjective probability varies from person to person—objective probability does not.

An example of subjective probability is when a person who is educated about weather patterns examines things such as barometric pressure, wind shear, and ocean temperature, then predicts the likelihood that a hurricane will head in a certain direction based on their previous experience. While the data aids in the decision-making, the ultimate prediction is based on probabilities that have been guesstimated by the weather forecaster.

Nguồn tham khảo: investopedia